10/30/2017

 

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market Monthly News Letter

Our goal is to you update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance.


GATs info: Please be advised that the GATS system may be unavailable Tuesday 10/31/2017 from 6am-10am EDT while Certificate Creation is performed. You may not be able to log into the system until the process is completed.

See Solar Buddy on the www.NJSREC.com homepage. We will post important updates for you there.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

  • *     There are 5 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month
  • *     2018 EY is the current Energy Year and the 09/2017 Generation from the 2018 EY will be posted this month

Energy Year:

NJ 2018 EY

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

NJ 2014 EY

SREC Generation Dates:

06-2017 to 05-2018

06-2016 to 05-2017

06-2015 to 05-2016

06-2014 to 05-2015

06-2013 to 05-2014

  • *     FOR CURRENT SREC PRICES go to www.NJSREC.com.
  • *     Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  • *     Important: You must use "Month of Generation" to determine the vintage of your SRECs.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the October 2017 trading month   09-29-17 to 10-30-17

  • *     The price of New Jersey eligible 2017 EY SRECs increased $15.00 during the trading month gradually.
  • *     The price of New Jersey 2018 EY SRECs increased $15.00 during the trading also.
  • *     Older vintages increased an average of $9.00 through the trading month.
  • *      New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 9.128 MW for September, 2017 however they reported an additional 9.636 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2015 calendar year, most from August 2017. The total added to New Jersey Solar capacity in September, 2017 is 18.764 MW.
  • *      Trading continued seasonally average for the NJ 2017 and NJ 2018 (EY) Energy Years. Trading for the 2016EY, 2015EY, 2014EY was very light.
  • *     We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system. This is the third month where only a small percentage of added capacity came from legacy months more than three months back. The system is likely catching up now.
  • *     Including the 10-18-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 6 month installation average decreased by 1.096 MW. The average was 22.070 MW and decreased to 20.974 MW per month.
  • *     Including the 10-18-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 12 month installation average increased by 0.120 MW. The average was 28.720 MW and increased to 28.840 MW per month.
  • *      The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 09-30-2017 increased by 1.212 MW. The Pipeline was 422.139 MW as of 8-31-2017 and increased to 423.351 MW as of the end of the September, 2017.
  • *     The installed solar capacity as of 09-30-2017 as reported was 2,271,190 MW. This capacity generates approximately 2,725,416 SRECs annually using the calculation that 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

  • *     Most New Jersey stake holders believe 15 MW to 17.5 MW of solar installed per month on average will stabilize the SREC market. Some believe that as little as 12.5 MW per month is the correct metric while others believe 20 MW on average is still on the edge of stable.
  • *     The current 12 month average of 28.84 MW still continues to be significantly higher than the perceived stabilization range. The 12 month average is typically a better metric to use than the 6 month average. It should be noted however, the 6 month average has been decreasing several months in a row.
  • *     The NJ 2017 EY compliant period ended 10/01/2017.
  • *     NJ 2013 EY SRECs expired 10/01/2017. We are no longer buying them.
  • *     The pipeline was reasonably stable September/October/November 2016. It dropped quite a bit in December 2016 along with a very large reported build. The pipeline resumed increasing by a small amount in January, 2017 however it decreased in February and had a significant decrease in March but again increased in April. The pipeline decreased in May and again in June and only decreased a small amount in July 2017. We had a substantial increase in the pipeline in August. The pipeline returned to stable in September 2017.
  • *     New Jersey solar growth is very strong but a bit slower than previous months. There is still currently a lower demand for SRECs over the next several years especially in the 2019 through 2023 Energy Years. Barring any new legislation, the SREC market remains over supplied.

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 9-30-2017 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2018 EY Price

Current 2014 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Current 2017 EY Price

Future 2019 EY Price

Future 2020 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Future 2022 EY Price

Spot Price

$185.00*

$175.00*

$175.00*

$175.00*

$183.00*

$185.00

$174.00

$140.00

$106.00

Delta (change) Current 2014 EY

Delta (change) Current 2015 EY

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2020 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

+$15.00

+$11.00

+$9.00

+$7.00

+$15.00

+$21.00

+$31.50

+$30.00

+$11.00

  • Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted for NJ 2017 EY Compliant SRECs and for larger quantities on FUTURE NJ 2019 EY through NJ 2021 EY SRECs.
  • Prices of currently available spot market SRECs posted above are the prices in effect at the time of this update. Prices will most likely change during the month. You MUST always enter our Web-Site posted price in GATs when transferring NJ SRECs to us.

www.NJSREC.com

 SOLAR TID BITS

  • *     Final September, 2017 reports show solar generation was good compared to last September. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, -5% to +11% kWh compared to last September. October, 2017, solar generation is incomplete but expected to be better than last year.
  • *     Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $158.00 to $262.50 range and are current trading below the average price for the past 12 months. NJ 2018 EY SRECs are trading $25.00 below current SREC prices this time last year. (based on 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted)

Our fall season recommendations this month repeated:

  • *      For roof systems. It is fall and you should watch for leaves building up on around or under your system.
  • *      If you have a ground system make sure your system is clear of weeds before winter.
  • *      If you still have not installed a revenue grade meter you are losing valuable revenue.
  • *      We recommend you read your meter at least once a month.
  • *     The 4th month of NJ 2018 EY SRECs will be posted to the GATs platform on 10/31/2017.
  • *      As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  • *     Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™